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Biodiversity and Conservation

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Biodiversity and Conservation's content profile, based on 12 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Ecological dynamics and stability in the Taï and Comoe national parks in Cote dIvoire

Kouakou, J.-L.; Assemien Cyrille-Joseph, A.; Alphonse, Y. K.; Ouattara, A.; Diarrassouba, A.; Gonedele-Bi, S.

2026-08-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.12.744377 medRxiv
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The accelerated loss of biodiversity in sub-Saharan Africa threatens the functioning of tropical ecosystems. In Cote dIvoire, the Comoe National Park (PNCOMOE), a Sudano-Guinean savannah, and the Tai National Park (PNTAI), a dense rainforest, both UNESCO World Heritage Sites, are home to fauna assemblages of global importance, whose long-term resilience remains insufficiently quantified. This study assesses and compares, over a decade (2014-2025), the functional stability of vertebrate communities in these two contrasting ecosystems, using nine metrics covering resistance, invariance, persistence, interspecific synchrony, Tilmans stability, Jacobian resilience and a Composite Stability Index (CSI). Abundance data for 107 vertebrate species were collected via foot transects at PNTAI and aerial surveys at PNCOMOE. The stability metrics were calculated using the R package estar, integrated with an alpha diversity analysis (Shannon H', species richness S, Pielous evenness J') and a Jacobian spectral analysis within a multidimensional ecological assessment. PNTAI (0.708) exhibits significantly higher alpha diversity (H' = 2.82; S = 55.7 taxa) and community resilience 4.6 times higher than in the PNCOMOE (0.153). Its interspecific asynchrony index (0.504) reveals a strong portfolio effect, absent in the PNCOMOE (0.232). In contrast, PNCOMOE exhibits higher temporal invariance (0.382 versus 0.116) and Tilman stability (0.276 versus 0.152), reflecting more predictable dynamics. The overall ICS favours the PNTAI (0.484) and (0.370). The Jacobian analysis detects local instability in both parks (Re({lambda}max) = 5.58 at the PNTAI; 3.73 at the PNCOMOE). The two parks exhibit distinct yet complementary stability architectures: PNTAI relies on dynamic stability based on resilience and interspecific compensation, whilst PNCOMOE demonstrates conservative stability through temporal regularity. The absence of calculable resilience at PNCOMOE suggests a potential crossing of a functional degradation threshold, arguing for urgent restoration interventions and differentiated conservation strategies, tailored to the resilience mechanisms specific to each ecosystem.

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Patterns and environmental drivers of amphibian alpha and beta diversity in the Huangshan Mountains, southern Anhui, China

Wang, S.; Wang, Z.; Sun, Y.; He, Z.; Sun, Q.; Wei, J.; Li, Y.; Liu, M.; Shi, J.; Zhang, C.; Wu, S.; Bai, Y.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, N.; Wang, S.

2026-08-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.20.745979 medRxiv
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Understanding the spatial patterns of biodiversity and their environmental determinants is fundamental to ecology and conservation, particularly in mountainous transitional zones where species assemblages can shift rapidly. Amphibians, as highly sensitive organisms, are excellent indicators of environmental change, yet quantitative assessments of their diversity in the Huangshan Mountains-a biodiversity hotspot at the junction of the Palaearctic and Oriental realms in southern Anhui, China-remain limited. We conducted systematic line-transect surveys across 200 grids (5 km x 5 km) during the spring and autumn of 2023 and 2024, recording a total of 10,342 individuals belonging to 23 species, 20 genera, 9 families, and 2 orders. Three species (Fejervarya multistriata, Microhyla fissipes, and Bufo gargarizans) were identified as dominant, and two nationally protected species (Hoplobatrachus chinensis and Andrias davidianus) were detected. Inter-annual alpha diversity did not differ significantly, but pronounced seasonal variation was observed, with spring supporting higher Shannon-Wiener and Pielou evenness than autumn in both years. Using generalized additive models and model averaging, we found that annual precipitation and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were consistently the strongest positive predictors of Shannon-Wiener diversity, Simpson dominance, and species richness, while species richness also declined significantly with increasing human footprint. Total beta diversity (Soerensen dissimilarity) was very high (0.981) and overwhelmingly driven by species turnover (97.86%) rather than nestedness. Partial Mantel tests and distance-based redundancy analysis further revealed that environmental distances-particularly annual precipitation-significantly shaped overall beta diversity and its turnover component after accounting for geographic distance. These results highlight the predominant role of climatic and vegetation gradients in structuring amphibian assemblages in this subtropical mountainous region, providing baseline data to inform local conservation strategies.

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The knowledge landscape of jaguar science: rapid growth, thematic structure, and regional inequalities

Elias, M. A. M.; Soares, P. T.; Diniz-Filho, J. A. F.; de Almeida Jacomo, A. T.; Silveira, T. J.; Silveira, L.

2026-08-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.17.745206 medRxiv
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Understanding how scientific effort is distributed is essential for evaluating the evidence available to guide species conservation. We assessed the temporal, thematic, methodological, and spatial organization of jaguar (Panthera onca) research across the species range. Using 1,028 bibliographic records, we applied a metadata-based scope filter, defining a primary analytical corpus of 857 articles and an inclusive sensitivity corpus of 989. We analyzed publication growth from 1946-2024, author-keyword networks, high-specificity research-domain and methodological indicators, article-based spatial concentration across nine regions, and anthropogenic context using the Human Impact Index. Publication output increased strongly and nonlinearly, with the negative-binomial generalized additive model explaining 96% of deviance. Population and abundance, human-wildlife conflict and coexistence, and movement and connectivity were the most frequent research domains, whereas camera trapping was the most frequent methodological approach. Spatial analyses included 237 georeferenced terrestrial articles. Research was strongly concentrated in the Pantanal, Mesoamerica, and Atlantic Forest, but was underrepresented relative to range area in the Andes and Choco-Darien, Amazon, and Guiana Shield. These patterns were stable to the broader scope definition. Research concentration showed no strong association with region-wide anthropogenic pressure, although studies within several extensive regions tended to occur in more human-influenced portions than the regional average. Jaguar research therefore shows substantial growth and partial alignment with applied conservation challenges but remains geographically uneven. Expanding representative research in underrepresented regions, while maintaining work in threatened landscapes, would strengthen the evidence base for range-wide conservation planning and improve coordination among countries, institutions, and regional research traditions.

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A practical sampling strategy for biodiversity genomics of reptiles: The Cryptoblepharus pulcher assembly offers insights into the demise of a threatened relative

Dodge, T. O.; Ernst, M.; Oliver, P.; Blom, M. P. K.

2026-08-28 genomics 10.64898/2026.08.27.747638 medRxiv
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Due to the sparse and uneven availability of genomic resources, it remains challenging to appraise genomic attributes for species of conservation concern. While long-read sequencing enables assessment of genetic diversity at unprecedented scale, accessing high-quality tissues remains a challenge for non-model species. Here, we explore an alternative sampling strategy for tissues where "gold-standard" cryopreservation is infeasible. Focusing on the Australian scincid lizard Cryptoblepharus pulcher, we compare DNA obtained from various ethanol-preserved tissue types and DNA extraction kits, and ask whether high-molecular weight DNA can still be retrieved. PacBio HiFi sequencing of the most promising sample yielded a highly contiguous reference-level assembly, validating this approach in vertebrates, specifically lizards. After scaffolding the assembly to chromosome-level, we then used a comparative approach to shed light on the evolution and demise of C. egeriae, a closely related, now Extinct-in-the-Wild species. Surprisingly, despite being a wide-spread continental analogue with a similar ecology, C. pulcher has lower genetic diversity and long-term historical population size than C. egeriae, an island endemic. However, C. pulcher also shows fewer runs-of-homozygosity, supporting prior reports that C. egeriae experienced recent inbreeding. Together, these findings demonstrate that a practical and cost-effective preservation strategy can still yield high-quality genomic resources in vertebrates, as well as valuable insights that are relevant in an age of biodiversity decline.

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Large scale application of species distribution models to predict future vulnerability to social wasp invasions

Hagan, T.; Miller, S. E.

2026-08-11 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.10.744014 medRxiv
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Social wasps (family: Vespidae) are increasingly concerning invaders and have been subject to increased detections and a growing number of invasive populations in the last few decades. As established invasive populations are challenging to eradicate, preventing introductions and prioritizing early interventions are the most cost-effective management solutions to mitigate these effects. A current challenge to this approach is that species distribution data is limited for many social wasp species, hindering our ability to accurately predict novel habitats with high suitability. To address this gap, we used MAXENT to create species distribution models (SDM) for 299 species of social vespid. We identified existing invasive populations of social wasps and incorporated their current invasive ranges to improve the transferability of our models in predicting habitat suitability in new environments. Current range sizes and habitat suitability varied widely among species and genera. We identified new species of high invasive concern, particularly in the genus Vespa. We also identified previously unrecognized regions that may be at high risk of future invasion primarily in Central Africa and the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Combining current and suitable ranges, we calculated an "Invasion Risk Score" to compare the relative likelihood of each species establishing a new invasive population based upon habitat suitability. To assess invasion risk in the future, we projected habitat suitability under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate change scenarios. Under all scenarios, species faced significant changes in habitat suitability for current native ranges. Habitat suitability generally shrank and shifted towards the poles, leaving equatorial species at highest risk of habitat loss. Notably, Vespa was the only genus whose suitable habitat expanded under these climate scenarios. Our framework demonstrates how multi-species SDMs can be applied to risk management of invasive populations.

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Regenerating forests around Taï National Park sustain biodiversity despite constrained floristic recovery

Houphouët, A. D. L.; Sangne, Y. C.; Diarrassouba, A.; Ehouman, E.; Herault, B.

2026-08-19 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.11.744329 medRxiv
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Extensive deforestation and disturbance have reshaped forest landscapes in West Africa, including areas surrounding Tai National Park, the largest remaining block of Upper Guinean rainforest. Although many degraded areas are currently undergoing regeneration, the capacity of these secondary forests to recover their biodiversity attributes remains insufficiently assessed within this park. This study quantifies the multidimensional restoration of biodiversity across 125 secondary forest plots and 15 primary forest plots representing 14,731 inventoried individuals in four sectors of the park. Using a Bayesian modelling framework, we estimate recovery trajectories of Shannon diversity, floristic composition, functional traits (wood density, leaf mass per area, seed mass), and conservation-relevant species. The different biodiversity attributes recovered at contrasting rates. Diversity was restored more rapidly ({lambda} = 0.06) than floristic composition ({lambda} = 0.03), and these recovery varied according to environmental variables. Among these, the presence of remnant trees showed the highest median on diversity (0.53 {+/-} 0.61) and floristic composition (0.37 {+/-} 0.17), promoting the rapid recovery of both attributes, followed by prior land use, particularly cocoa farming which also positively influenced the recovery of alpha diversity ({lambda} = 0.03) and floristic composition ({lambda} = 0.02). Regarding functional traits, they displayed contrasting dynamics: specific leaf area and seed mass recovered rapidly along successional gradients, whereas wood density followed a more gradual recovery trajectory. From a conservation perspective, although the proportion of IUCN Red List species remained stable along the successional gradient, old-growth indicator species were significantly more abundant in primary forests. To ensure the long-term conservation of biodiversity, protecting both primary and regenerating forests is essential to preserve the ecological resilience of this park.

7
Global slowdown in the rate of invasive alien species establishment

McGeoch, M.; Mason, R. T.; Affleck, S.; Shipley, B.; Belmaker, J.; Ganglo, J. C.; Jetz, W.; Leihy, R.; Shrestha, B. B.; Solarz, W.; Winter, M.

2026-08-24 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.21.746256 medRxiv
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The number of species introduced outside of their historical ranges by human activity continues to rise. A subset of these species establishes, form self-sustaining populations, and some (invasive alien species) go on to cause substantial harm to biodiversity and ecosystems. Preventing new invasive alien species from establishing is the key focus of interventions, because post-establishment management is costly and often fails. However, it remains unclear how effective multilateral efforts have been in curbing the rise. Here we show that the emergence of new invasive alien species across countries is slowing, and trends are similarly negative across geographically diverse countries. Using data and modelling advances, we find a 35% reduction in the establishment of new invasive alien species over a policy-relevant 50-year time frame. The findings directly inform the assessment of progress for the invasive alien species target of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, and provide a global baseline for monitoring rates of invasive alien species establishment. Furthermore, the slowdown suggests that policy and investment over recent decades to prevent invasive alien species from entering and establishing in countries have had a positive effect.

8
Decoupling environmental suitability from realized recruitment through ontogenetic environmental filtering in a long-lived Mediterranean palm species

Cordero, S.; Perez, F. R.; Acuna-Molina, R.; Contreras-Vera, Y.; Jorquera-Fonck, T.; Gongora-Vasquez, F.; Gonzalez-Ramos, B.; Nunez, J. P.; Rosello, I.; Sepulveda-Vasquez, A.; Vergara, M. A.; Fonturbel, F. E.

2026-08-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.17.745352 medRxiv
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Long-lived plants facing anthropogenic disturbance often exhibit recruitment failure despite persistent reproductive adults, generating extinction debt masked by longevity. However, whether adult presence reliably reflects environmental suitability for recruitment remains unclear. Here, we examine ontogenetic niche differentiation and its consequences for recruitment in Jubaea chilensis, an endangered long-lived Mediterranean palm with an aging population. We assigned individuals within the largest known population to four ontogenetic stages and characterized their environmental niches using climatic, edaphic, topographic, and vegetation variables. We then applied spatial and multivariate analyses, including Random Forest models to evaluate environmental segregation and identify predictors of seedling establishment. Age classes occupied significantly different environmental niches, with the greatest differentiation between seedlings and reproductive adults. Saplings and adult differentiation reflected mainly topographic variables at landscape scale, whereas seedling establishment was primarily predicted by microhabitat conditions (vegetation cover heterogeneity, east-facing slope orientation, and soil texture). This pattern is consistent with niche reconfiguring throughout the life cycle, suggesting that adult occurrence and recruitment suitability respond to distinct environmental conditions. Over one-fifth of sampled individuals occupied high-suitability sites without recruitment, suggesting that ontogenetic niche shifts are associated with a spatial decoupling between adult persistence and recruitment, consistent with demographic collapse independent of habitat degradation. This failure is likely mediated by insufficient effective seed dispersal, as the sole disperser (Octodon degus) preys on most seeds before dispersal. Conservation strategies based solely on adult distribution may therefore overestimate effective habitat and underestimate extinction risk in long-lived species.

9
Modeling two decades of elevational change in endemic bird densities in Hawaiis Kau Rainforest

Patton, P. T.; Judge, S. W.; Royle, J. T.; Sillett, T. S.

2026-08-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.20.746003 medRxiv
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Protected areas are vital to the recovery of endangered species. Of the 24 remaining endemic passerines in Hawaii, 16 species are endangered or critically endangered. Yet protected areas in the archipelago are changing as a result of climate change and biological invasions. For example, the non-native southern house mosquito (Culex quinquefasciatus), the primary vector of avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), has been encroaching upward as higher elevations warm. How the ranges of endemic birds have also shifted their range upward in the Ka[u] Rainforest, the largest native forest on the Island of Hawaii, is not well understood. We used hierarchical distance sampling to characterize how population density has changed from 2002 to 2024 for eight endemic bird species in the Ka[u] Rainforest. For five species, the most parsimonious model included an interaction between year and a quadratic elevation effect. Species that were most common at lower elevations in 2002, e.g., Apapane (Himatione sanguinea), tended to be most common at mid-elevations by 2024. Species that were already most common at higher elevations, such as Iiwi (Drepanis coccinea) and Hawaii [A]kepa (Loxops coccineus), tended to decline in density. For example, Iiwi density at 1,530 m declined from 3.31 birds per ha (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.67-4.11) to 1.34 birds per ha (95% CI: 1.05-1.71), and Hawaii [A]kepa were completely extirpated from elevations below 1,530 m by 2024. Our results demonstrate how the elevational ranges of endemic species have shifted in response to climate change, biological invasions, and habitat degradation. Translating these results into conservation measures may require a more thorough investigation of the causal mechanisms of these range shifts with finer scale habitat data, under the same hierarchical modeling framework.

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Limited neutral and adaptive genomic divergence suggests Acropora cervicornis can be managed as a single conservation unit across its range

Duffin, P. J.; Ruggeri, M.; Conn, T.; Baums, I. B.; Blanco-Pimentel, M.; Bosch, P.; Carne, L.; Danser, N.; Montoya-Maya, P.; Morikawa, M.; Muller, E. M.; Winters, R. S.; Baker, A. C.; Cunning, R.; Dahlgren, C.; Parkinson, J. E.; Kenkel, C. D.

2026-08-29 genomics 10.64898/2026.08.26.747420 medRxiv
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Genomic signatures can provide key insight into the evolutionary history and remaining adaptive potential of threatened populations. As demographic decline erodes both diversity and the processes maintaining it, understanding how remaining variation is distributed becomes increasingly important for conserving species like the staghorn coral, Acropora cervicornis, a foundational but critically endangered Caribbean reef-builder. We analyzed 46 high-coverage A. cervicornis genomes from 10 locations across the tropical western Atlantic to evaluate neutral and adaptive structure, genomic diversity, demographic history, inbreeding, and connectivity, and generated a regional haplotype reference panel for future genomic monitoring. Genome-wide analyses recovered recurring regional substructure, but differentiation was modest and partly explained by isolation-by-distance and spatial variation in effective migration. Subpopulations had similar levels of genomic diversity, shared demographic history, and limited evidence of local adaptation. These patterns support interpreting sampled Caribbean populations as a single evolutionarily significant unit (ESU) containing multiple regional management units (MUs), rather than as deeply divergent evolutionary lineages. Despite substantial retained variation and low current inbreeding, estimated contemporary effective population size was small, suggesting an increased vulnerability to the effects of drift as demographic collapse continues, especially if structure is reinforced by isolated management. Together, our findings emphasize the urgent need for interventions that preserve and enhance genomic diversity, including risk-managed assisted gene flow. Supported by the haplotype reference panel developed here, these strategies will require coordinated efforts across regional entities to conserve and restore A. cervicornis as a jointly managed, single ESU.

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Human development and inequality shape global threat patterns for terrestrial biodiversity

Pulido Chadid, K.; Etard, A.; Gorosabel, A.; Jung, M.; O'Connor, L.; Rahbek, C.; Geldmann, J.

2026-08-11 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.07.743246 medRxiv
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Biodiversity loss is driven by unsustainable human activities, yet the contextual conditions and underlying drivers of threats remain poorly understood. We assessed how protected areas, socioeconomic conditions, and biophysical factors explain global patterns of threat probabilities across six major threat types and four vertebrate taxa. We identified key explanatory variables and their associations with threats using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Socioeconomic conditions, specifically human development and income inequality, were the strongest predictors. Their associations were complex and non-linear: notably, high human development index (HDI) was associated with both higher and lower threat probabilities, depending on inequality and regional context. Second, land cover and biophysical variables, such as shrubland cover, tree cover, and elevation range, explained additional, but taxon-specific variation. Finally, protected areas showed limited ability to explain threat patterns. By linking threat probabilities to their contextual and socioecological conditions, we aim to build a better understanding of the systemic drivers of biodiversity loss.

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Genomic status of the Eurasian curlew Numenius arquata : estimating Essential Biodiversity Variables and selection signals for a declining migratory bird

Walsh, G.; Höglund, J.; Rödin-Mörch, P.; Ward, J. A.; Örnberg, R. C.; Thompson, J. E.; O'Donovan, D.; de Jong, A.; Kelly, S. B. A.; Hemmings, N.; MacHugh, D. E.; McMahon, B. J.

2026-08-28 genomics 10.64898/2026.08.25.746821 medRxiv
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Understanding how contemporary population declines affect the genomic diversity and structure of threatened species is important for effective conservation. The Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata) is experiencing severe population declines across Europe, with Ireland among the most extreme, showing declines exceeding 90% over 40 years. Genomic data are increasingly incorporated into policy and used to assess conservation status by estimating genetic diversity, differentiation, inbreeding, effective population size, and adaptive divergence. Such data for curlew is scarce, and the population structure among northern and north-western European breeding populations remains unclear. To address this, we generated whole-genome resequencing data for 56 curlews across Ireland, Britain and Sweden. Irish and British populations showed minimal interpopulation differentiation, but both were substantially differentiated from Sweden. This was apparent from principal component analysis, and admixture and FST analyses. Measures of genetic diversity (nucleotide diversity, heterozygosity, Watterson's{theta} ) were similar across populations. A slightly elevated Tajima's D in Ireland, along with elevated FROH in Ireland and Britain relative to Sweden, may be the early genomic signs of recent population declines. We identified locally selected candidate genes. These had putative roles in metabolic processes, the immune response, and were potentially associated with distinct migratory behaviours and environmental conditions. We find a potential lag in genomic effects of decline being detectable following population contraction. We also show highly migratory species can exhibit differentiation in ecologically relevant traits, potentially driven by high site fidelity. These findings warrant consideration in translocation planning and broader conservation strategies.

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Operationalizing site-level conservation for migratory birds across the Americas' flyways

Linero Triana, D.; Seavy, N. E.; Aparicio, S.; Carrillo-Restrepo, J. C.; Clay, R.; Crow, O.; De Luca, W. V.; Gates, R.; Jones, V.; Lesterhuis, A.; Michel, N. L.; Seager, M.; Toscano, M. G.; Valdes-Uribe, J.; Velasquez, M.; Velasquez-Tibata, J.

2026-08-13 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.12.744493 medRxiv
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Conserving migratory birds effectively requires full annual cycle strategies that identify where on-the-ground efforts can have the greatest impact. Here, we present a hemispheric spatial framework to identify priority areas for 112 migratory bird species across the Americas. Building on full annual cycle prioritizations, we defined finer-scale spatial planning units that reflect differences in migratory and congregational behaviors between shorebirds and landbirds. We compiled population data for each planning unit and focal species and applied conservation planning tools to design area-efficient portfolios of sites and landscapes that secure 10% of each species population within the Americas flyways. The resulting minimum area portfolios include 175 shorebird sites and 80 landbird landscapes optimized to meet the species-specific 10% representation targets across breeding, non-breeding, and passage seasons. We also identified a broader set of complementary solutions, ranked by an importance score, to provide decision-makers with flexible options for strategic resource allocation. This framework provides the scientific foundation for the Americas Flyways Initiative (AFI), which aims to catalyze investment in nature-based solutions and bird-friendly infrastructure to enhance the conservation of migratory birds and strengthen the resilience of the Americas flyways by 2050.

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Patterns of species richness and endemism in bee and plant communities in California

Alarcon-Cruz, G.; Jacobs, S.; Baldwin, B. G.; Seltmann, K.; LeBuhn, G.

2026-08-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.06.743382 medRxiv
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Understanding the spatial distribution of species and their patterns of endemism is necessary for establishing effective conservation priorities. Despite the vital pollination services bees provide, Californias native bee distribution patterns remain largely unexplored relative to plants and butterflies. We analyzed bee species richness and endemism across California and their concordance with plant distributions. Richness was high across areas of the California Floristic Province, including the Sierra Nevada, San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast, South Coast Ranges, and the Transverse and Peninsular ranges. Bee endemism was more localized, concentrated in the San Joaquin Valley, eastern Sierra Nevada and adjacent Great Basin, Sierra Nevada foothills, and California deserts. Because richness and endemism appear to operate at different spatial scales and likely respond to different environmental drivers, effective conservation strategies must address both. Additionally, conservation plans that incorporate both plant and bee diversity are needed to achieve more comprehensive biodiversity protection.

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Widespread collapse in Iberian forest site productivity projected under future climate change

Fernandez-Pastor, M.; Rodriguez-Ruiz, G.; Monjo, R.; del Carre, M.; Hernandez-Parada, A. I.; Prado-Lopez, C.; Garcia-Valdes, R.; Redolat, D.; Moreno-Chacon, E.; Ribaylagua, J.

2026-08-10 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.07.743474 medRxiv
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AimHere we aim to disentangle species-specific bioclimatic drivers of forest site productivity and project their future dynamics, providing a spatially explicit basis for anticipating climate-driven shifts in productivity and their implications for forest carbon sequestration. LocationIberian Peninsula. Time period1985-2014 (calibration); 2071-2100 (projected under CMIP6 scenarios). Major taxa studied21 Iberian tree species. MethodsWe used Site Form (SF) maps derived from the Third Spanish National Forest Inventory, spatially interpolating plot-level SF estimates as a continuous productivity index and relating them to 25 bioclimatic variables. Multiple linear regression models were selected via complementary stepwise and subset regression and validated on independent hold-out data (80%/20% split). ResultsValidated [Formula] ranged from 0.46 (Quercus faginea) to 0.97 (Pinus pinaster); 17 of 21 species reached [Formula]. BI013 precipitation of the wettest month), not BI014, was the most frequently retained predictor (15/17); BI014 was retained in only (11/17 models with a near-even sign split. Combining projected changes in mean productivity and habitat extent under SSP5-8.5, fifteen of sixteen applicable species lose total productivity by 2071-2100, six -- including Fagus sylvatica and Betula alba -- collapsing to below 1% of their reference-period value; only Pinus pinaster gains, and only under the lowest-emission pathway (up to 175%) -- under SSP5-8.5 it too loses productivity, albeit less than any other species (35% of its reference-period value retained). Limiting warming to SSP1-2.6 spares Mediterranean pine and oak species but not Euro-Siberian and montane ones. Main conclusionsThese validated, extrapolation-aware models reveal a near-universal, climate-driven collapse in Iberian forest site productivity, with direct implications for the carbon-sink potential currently attributed to these forest types, and provide a route to dynamic, climate-aware carbon-uptake estimates for the region.

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Generalism vs. specialization: Does niche breadth influence species responses to anthropogenic land-use change in Neotropical leaf-cutter ants?

Garcia Castillo, D.

2026-08-17 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.12.744409 medRxiv
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Land-use change, such as the transformation of woody ecosystems into open pastures, acts as a strong ecological filter, favouring some species while excluding others according to differences in ecological niche breadth. Understanding how differences in niche breadth influence species responses under anthropogenic filters is crucial to anticipate their persistence or displacement. In this study, we quantified realized niche breadth in two sympatric ecosystem engineers, the Neotropical leaf-cutter ants Atta cephalotes and Atta laevigata, to test whether breadth differences are consistent with specialist and generalist ecological strategies. We characterized realized niche breadth across fine-scale environmental gradients by integrating hemispherical photography, microclimatic data, mound architecture, and edaphic profiles from 114 colonies across a regional transect in the Colombian Andes, alongside macroclimatic data from Copernicus. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and PERMANOVA identified canopy openness and bushes- and tree-type vegetation density as the principal axes of interspecific niche partitioning. The observed differences in realized niche breadth were consistent with specialist and generalist ecological strategies. A. laevigata was predominantly associated with open-canopy areas, warmer micro- and macroclimatic conditions, and narrower edaphic dispersion. In contrast, A. cephalotes occupied a wider range of microhabitat conditions. This broader realized niche breadth is compatible with previous reports of A. cephalotes occurring in urban areas. Together, these findings suggest that niche breadth may influence how Neotropical leaf-cutter ants respond to habitat transformation, helping to understand the ecological consequences of land-use change.

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Under-sampled KBAs, over-sampled roadsides: integrating historical and contemporary records of Malagasy bees

Quesada, D.; Leclercq, N.; Marshall, L.; Clark, C. E. D.; Razakamiaramanana, A.; Vereecken, N. J.

2026-08-24 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.23.746540 medRxiv
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Madagascar hosts exceptional biodiversity and endemism, yet its native bee fauna remains poorly characterised. We assembled and cleaned the first comprehensive occurrence dataset for Malagasy bees, reducing 10,721 raw records to 4,071 validated occurrences covering 218 georeferenced species of the 224 checklist species across six families (89.3% endemic). Despite near-complete checklist coverage, the dataset remains critically sparse for Madagascar's size, with most species documented by only a few records. Sampling was highly uneven across taxa: most genera were underrepresented while a few were disproportionately sampled due to ecological prevalence, detectability, and collector specialisation. Spatial concentration within limited grid cells amplified these biases. Temporally, effort varied markedly, with historical peaks driven by individual collectors and a post-2010 shift toward Apidae-dominated records. Spatially, 79.9% of 25x25 km grid cells intersecting Madagascar held no bee records, and 77.1% of records fell within 2.5 km of roads, mirroring global sampling patterns. Sampling clustered near major cities, with common species consistently found near roads and rare species spread across wider distance ranges. Among 231 Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs), 68.4% were entirely unsampled; sampled KBAs held only 26.7% of all records, and sampling remained uneven even there, leaving substantial undetected diversity across most sites. These results reveal pervasive temporal, spatial, taxonomic, and collector-driven biases, underscoring the need for targeted surveys within KBAs and beyond roadsides to improve coverage of data-deficient species and strengthen conservation assessments.

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Matching lynx population estimates to management scale: conservation science vs politics in the western Swiss Alps

Verschueren, S.; Braunisch, V.; Debons, V.; Arlettaz, R.

2026-08-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.25.747176 medRxiv
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Reliable population estimates are essential for wildlife management, yet monitoring schemes often do not match the administrative scale at which decisions are made. We illustrate this challenge using the Eurasian lynx in the canton of Valais, Switzerland, where official state monitoring is fragmented across three reference areas surveyed in different years. We analyzed three winters (2023-2026) of independent, canton-wide camera trap data, recording 899 independent lynx captures (27, 31 and 34 adults per winter). Lynx distribution and reproduction concentrated in the Northwest and connected to the thriving Pre-alpine populations. Density modelling for 2025/2026 estimated 37 independent lynx (95% CI: 26-52) on the whole cantonal territory, corresponding to a density of 1.09 (0.77-1.56) individuals per 100 km2. These estimates are substantially below the figures improperly extrapolated from a cross-cantonal reference area and conveyed by political authorities. Future lynx management decisions should be rooted in scientifically sound, scale-relevant information.

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Biogeographic history and megafauna shape frugivory interaction networks across equatorial forests

Clement, G.; Lotfi, N.; Ong, L.; Campos-Arceiz, A.; Bretagnolle, F.; McConkey, K.; Thomachot, R.; Mello, M. A. R.; Forget, P.-M.

2026-08-13 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.12.744530 medRxiv
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Frugivory is essential for the maintenance of tropical forests, influencing seed movement, spatial structure, and ecosystem functioning. Although frugivory interactions are well documented at local scales, we still know relatively little about how network structure varies across biogeographic regions, particularly in equatorial lowland forests. In this study, we compare frugivory networks in lowland forests in the Guiana Shield (South America), Malaysia (Southeast Asia), and Central Africa (Gabon and Cameroon). Because these sites occur at similar latitudes, they provide a useful setting to examine how evolutionary history and biogeographic context, rather than climate alone, might shape the structure of the network. We analyze patterns across regions, focusing on implications for frugivory interactions and, ultimately, seed dispersal. Guided by the Integrative Hypothesis of Specialization (IHS), we focus on the role of megafauna and other large-bodied frugivores, which are important consumers of large fruits and dispersers of large seeds, and have experienced different historical trajectories in each continent. We also considered whether smaller frugivores, such as rodents, might partially compensate for the loss of Megafauna in the Americas through seed handling and caching behavior. The pantropical comparison revealed structural and functional differences between the studied frugivory networks. In the Guianas, lacking megafauna, the frugivory network showed strong modularity with nestedness within modules, forming a marked compound topology. Alternatively, in Central Africa, with elephants and great apes, the network showed intermediate modularity and nestedness, reflecting a balance between local compartmentalization and regional integration. Finally, in Malaysia, the network was predominantly nested, with a few highly connected species, especially figs and flying foxes, that linked most of the partners. Across continents, frugivory networks tend toward a compound topology, but the relative influence of modular and nested components shifts with biogeography, evolution, and ecology.

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The relationship of genetic diversity and inbreeding to extinction risk across over 500 vertebrate diploid genomes

Gardiner, A.; Vertebrate Genomes Project Phase 1 Consortium, ; Durbin, R.

2026-08-18 genomics 10.64898/2026.08.14.744813 medRxiv
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Genetics may help address the biodiversity crisis by providing information about genetic diversity and temporal changes in demography for species of interest. Advances in whole-genome sequencing create new opportunities for demographic analysis, even based on the two copies of a genome found in a single diploid individual. The Vertebrate Genomes Project (VGP) is generating high-quality, chromosome-level reference genomes across the full range of extant vertebrate species, with its first phase delivering assemblies spanning approximately 95% of vertebrate orders. Using 512 diploid VGP genomes, we quantified intra-species heterozygosity, runs of homozygosity (ROH), and inferred past effective population sizes (Ne) with the Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent (PSMC). Threatened species are more likely to exhibit lower heterozygosity and longer ROH, though there is large variation in both measures across all IUCN categories. Interestingly, PSMC suggests that estimated historical Ne several thousand generations ago is a better predictor of threatened status than the present day estimate. Co-analysing with life history traits, we found that marine species tend to have lower ROH content, while fossorial species show significantly higher inbreeding levels. Indeed, habitat and foraging strata are much stronger predictors of IUCN status than genetics, with estimated historical Ne providing a small but significant amount of additional information. Together, these results suggest that, while measures of genetic diversity are correlated with IUCN status, much of that correlation may derive from ecological factors such as habitat, with only a relatively small direct contribution. Nevertheless, reference genomes like those generated by the VGP can yield valuable information, like historical Ne, while facilitating population monitoring and management for species of interest.